February 8, 2012

Trading Calculator: Lay the Draw and back the 0-0 Final Score

I developed this calculator after reading the “Profitable Trading Strategies” that exemplified how to make “safe” money betting on Lay draw and in the 0-0 Final Score (CALCULATOR AT END OF ARTICLE).

The aim was to help in the calculation of values to place on each bet.

I let down a sort of tutorial examples using a soccer game:

1. Select the Game

This step is very important and requires some previous study of game selection. Although the strategy to fit in most games you have to be aware that the bet against a draw in a game where a team is a clear favorite over another odds to draw can go up, instead going down. This is because the probability of the theoretically weaker team does not win is still significant.

I will not lengthen too much on this aspect, it is up to each make your selection from the game.

For me, the first step is to open “LIVE” games Coupon on Betfair:

Trading Calculator Lay the Draw and back the 0-0 Final Score

I select the game of the 2nd Bundesliga 1860 x Munich Koblen (for no apparent reason, just as an example).

I select the game of the 2nd Bundesliga 1860 x Munich Koblen for no apparent reason, just as an example

As we can see in the image on top the Odds for Lay the Draw is @4.00 and Odds for Back 0-0 Exact Results is @17.5

2. Place the Odds in Calculator and get the Betting values

After selecting the game and obtain the odds, we put these on the calculator.

The first step is to put the total value we want to bet. This value will be examined as odd’s bets and bet divided by the Lay on Draw and bet on the 0-0 correct score. This value is the total amount exposed for making this bet. Obviously you must have a bankroll equal to or greater than this value on Betfair.

The example that I will be placing a 100 € bet.

Place the Odds in Calculator and get the Betting values

Red Color Boxes:
We put the 100 € in the box corresponding to “Amount to bet.”
In Lay the Draw bet we put the Odd@4.00.
In 0-0 correct score bet we put Odd@17.5.

Yellow Color Boxes:
Immediately are calculated values that we place on each bet on Betfair.
We also note that the sum of Liability in the Lay Draw bet will be € 94.29.
The bet on Back 0-0 Exact Results will be € 5.71.
The sum of the two bets will be exposed to 100 € from our bank.

The last option “Share of profit if the Final Encounter result is 0-0 ” will be spoken later. Basically it will serve to make an estimate of potential profits, distributed, if the match ends 0-0. For now just realize if we allow this percentage to 0% means that if the game finishes 0-0 we will have no profit in this market.

3. Pessimistic Estimate

I took the inspiration and development of a zone in calculator that gives us in values terms and odds that we bet, the worst estimate of Odd for Back Draw after the goal may take us.

Pessimistic Estimate

It is quite easy to analyze. Just look for the box that gives us the value of odd in this example @4.89 and found that it is sufficient to draw odd rise to @4.89 and we already have our safe bet.

I think this tool allows us to analyze certain games depending on the odds. With some experience in live betting and “look” enough for the odds will be able to predict the rise / fall of an odd in function for a goal against / for, then … We can simulate what it would be if the game goes well, or if the game goes wrong!

4. Waiting for a goal in the game and close position in the game

I leave a warning. As has been said here is important to perform the first bets at the beginning of the meeting, or so it moves to “LIVE”. This is because there is always the minimum probability of the game did not pass to “LIVE” and here we have the strategy all spoiled and we can go to pray that the meeting will not end unless tied 0-0.

It happened a GOAL, great.

What we must do immediately is to check the odds on Back Draw.

Suppose that the meeting selected for me, the 1860 Munich, it was a bit early favorite, score the 1-0 and the odds for Back Draw rise (as we predicted).

Waiting for a goal in the game and close position in the game

Red Color Box:
In the simulation I made up, the odds of Draw was @8.00, thinking that the home team goal (favorites) will change the market in our favor.
Immediately gives us the value to stake on the Back Draw with Odds @8.00, € 15.71

Is important to close the position at the Draw as soon as possible.
As can be seen in the last calculator zone “Final Score” is provided the profits obtained in this game with this strategy.

5. Conclusion:

As we see in the image above:
If the game ended tied 0-0, our profit was € 0.
If the game ended with draw but was not 0-0, our profit was € 9.50
If the game did not end in a draw, our profit was € 9.50

6. Profit Percentage on 0-0 Exact Results (Estimate)

Decided to create this field in order to try to split the profits whatever the result, even the 0-0. As we see above, if the game finished 0-0 our profit was € 0. Certainly the probability of a soccer game finished without goals is minimal, but it is up to each one, so I created this option.

It’s fairly simple to calculate the initial stake, making profit in 0-0 result, simply by putting the profit percentage we want to put in 0-0 exact result. This percentage is merely an estimate since the beginning we do not know the odds for Back Draw variation.


  1. Jim says:

    Thanks for the calculator, ive traded two games already with it with great results. one game was a little close as the fav started at odds of 1.7, the underdog scored an early goal first and the price for the draw fell by over ten ticks, it still hadn’t returned to break even by half time, luckily the dog scored another two giving me the trade i wanted.

    Im thinking that its not worth looking at games where the fav is under 2.0, i check thsi first then i check the expected goals on sporting index and the head to head on soccerway.

    If the expected goals is over 2.5 and the head to head shows frequent goals then i look to trade the match.

    Another tip i have just started to include if you find a few selections and cant trade them all is to go for the matches where the goals come later in the games, this info can be found on soccerway in the head to head. late goals will give the draw price a much bigger swing.

    once again thanks for the spreadsheet.

    I have tried to make one for trading several correct scores but I always get confused with the maths :s

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